In the midst of the troubled launch of Obamacare’s health insurance exchanges, it is looking less and less likely that the law will lead to the net increase of insured Americans that the administration has promised, as I explain in a column at National Review Online.
At the time of enactment, CBO estimated that the net effect of the various Obamacare provisions would be 10 million new enrollees in Medicaid in 2014, 8 million enrollees in plans offered on the exchanges, 4 million new enrollees in plans sponsored by employers, and a reduction of 2 million people in the non-exchange individual insurance market. The net effect was an estimated reduction in the ranks of the uninsured of 19 million in 2014.
The Obama administration relied heavily on this CBO cost estimate to argue that the law would dramatically expand insurance coverage even as it also reduced projected federal budget deficits, in the short and long term. The CBO estimate was also instrumental in rounding up the final votes in favor of passage of the legislation in Congress. A strong case can be made that the numbers in the CBO cost estimate were what was promised to the American people, and therefore represent the benchmark against which Obamacare should be assessed.
The likelihood that such a sizeable reduction in the uninsured can be achieved in 2014 is slim. To date, far more people have learned that they are losing their plans next year than have signed up for new coverage in the exchanges. Moreover, even though Medicaid enrollments are running above those in the exchange plans, they are still not nearly on pace to reach the levels promised at enactment.
You can read the rest of the column here.